With the 2025 U.S. fall harvest in the books, USDA returns with a year-end issue of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report at 11 a.m. CST, Tuesday, Dec. 9. December's report is typically uneventful, and traders will focus on demand for U.S. crops as well as early forecasts for 2026 production in South America.

CORN

In the three weeks since the delayed release of the November WASDE report, corn futures have traded more or less sideways. Initially, March prices fell to monthly lows after USDA found the U.S. corn crop to be a record breaker by over 1.4 billion bushels (bb). But skepticism about that estimate -- along with rampant export demand thus far for the season -- boosted prices to now sit a few cents higher than the Nov. 14 (last report release day) close as of Dec. 4.

For Tuesday's report, USDA will not adjust production estimates, giving the agency the opportunity to instead focus on demand. While it isn't necessarily a given that any adjustments will be made on that side of the balance sheet either, the argument can definitely be made that revisions higher would be justified. I was a little surprised to see in Dow Jones' survey of 16 firms that the average trade guess for next Tuesday is actually calling for a slight increase in the U.S. corn ending stocks forecast -- up to 2.166 bb from 2.154 bb in November. However, upon looking down the list of individual estimates, I found only four out of 16 were expecting higher stocks. It's just that those forecasting higher than USDA were doing so by a larger margin than those forecasting lower, thus pulling the average trade guess higher. Of the remaining 12 firms in the survey, eight are forecasting lower stocks than USDA's November estimate by an average of 47 million bushels (mb) down to 2.107 bb. Four firms are forecasting no changes from USDA at all. If USDA does raise demand in Tuesday's report, corn exports seem to be the area most likely to benefit, with most recent weekly sales data pointing to a 31% year-over-year increase in corn commitments as of Oct. 30. More recently, inspections as of Nov. 27 are up 71%, year-over-year. At this point last year, export commitments were up 33% compared to 2023, and USDA went on to raise its forecast by a whopping 150 mb in the December WASDE.

On the world balance sheet, given the time of year, traders will likely be interested in early forecasts for the 2026 corn crops in Argentina and Brazil. Thus far, Argentina's corn is reported to be in great condition overall, but it's worth remembering that USDA is already assuming a 6% increase in production on higher planted area alone. As for Brazil, it is likely too early for USDA to make drastic changes as the vast majority of Brazil's production comes via the safrinha crop, which won't be planted until February and March of 2026. As a result, analysts are expecting USDA to hold world stocks steady at 281.3 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025-26.

SOYBEANS

In the weeks since the last USDA report, January soybean futures have drifted lower but remain roughly a dollar above mid-October lows. Traders deem the return of China to the U.S. market through the month of November as worth a premium, given the lower year-over-year supply of soybeans in the U.S.

In the November WASDE, USDA estimated soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 season at 290 mb, the lowest in three years if true, despite USDA also forecasting the lowest amount of soybean exports in over a decade. For Tuesday's report, analysts surveyed by Dow Jones on average expect to see the carryout increase to 309 mb. Of the 16 firms surveyed, 11 are forecasting higher ending stocks, while two see stocks as lower, and three believe USDA will make no changes. Similar to corn, if there are changes to the demand side of the balance sheet, exports are the figure to watch. Beginning with the July WASDE, USDA has reduced its 2025-26 export forecast in each subsequent report, amounting to a total of 180 mb. As of Oct. 30 (the most recent USDA sales data), soybean export commitments were 38% below the same point in 2024, while inspections as of Nov. 27 are down 46%. The return of China to the U.S. soybean market is encouraging, but the government shutdown has left traders in the dark regarding the depth of business with the world's largest soybean buyer. USDA's action on Tuesday will be very telling about the amount of sales booked thus far.

The U.S. export conversation ties directly to the world balance sheet in the December WASDE, as further cuts to U.S. exports will likely require explanation within the world market. In the November WASDE, USDA said there was roughly 1.62 bb of world soybean imports that will not be filled by South America or other fringe exporting countries. So, if U.S. exports drop below this mark, it stands to reason total world imports will also need to drop as a result, or perhaps South America will be seen as supplying more of the world's demand. For world stocks, analysts expect a calm report, seeing stocks rising 800,000 metric tons (mt) to 122.8 mmt. With Brazil's soybean planting season in the home stretch and planting well underway in Argentina as well, traders will be interested to see how USDA forecasts those crops. However, it is worth recalling that USDA is already anticipating a record Brazilian crop to the tune of 175 mmt on higher planted area and a slight year-over-year cut to production in Argentina on lower area as compared to 2024.

WHEAT

Through the fall, wheat futures were able to rally from calendar and contract lows, at one point approaching three-month highs. But rally attempts have been capped by active sellers amid an ever-growing world wheat supply.

For Tuesday's report, USDA will, of course, take a demand focus when looking at U.S. wheat. There has been reason for optimism in that realm, with wheat export inspections as of Nov. 27 up 20% from the same time in 2024. As of Oct. 30, total wheat commitments were 22% ahead of the same point in 2024. The Dow Jones survey points to an average guess for Tuesday's U.S. wheat ending stocks at 893 mb, slightly less than 901 mb in November but still the largest in six years if accurate. Of the 16 analysts surveyed, 15 are expecting either a hold or reduction in USDA's ending wheat stocks estimate in Tuesday's report. If the survey results are any indication, the December WASDE could be quickly shrugged off by the wheat market.

On the world stage, it appears, based on recent local government reports around the globe, that USDA will again increase production among major exporting countries. To name a few examples, just this week, Statistics Canada found total wheat production in Canada totaled a record 40 mmt in 2025, as compared to a 37-mmt estimate in the November WASDE report. Argentina would be another country to watch for a potential revision higher, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange having increased its forecast in November to 25.5 mmt of production as compared to USDA's November estimate of 22 mmt. Analysts, on average, are expecting 2025-26 world wheat ending stocks to increase by 1.2 mmt to 272.6 mmt in the Tuesday report, which would stand as just about a 10-mmt increase in wheat stockpiles for 2025-26 as compared to the old-crop 2024-25 year. It will, of course, also be important to monitor if and how increased world production is absorbed on the demand side of the market.

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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST, on Tuesday, Dec. 9, as we discuss USDA's new estimates considering recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's December WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2025-26
	Nov	Avg	High	Low	Nov
Corn		2,166	2,376	2,037	2,154
Soybeans		309	385	250	290
Wheat		893	906	846	901
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25
	Nov	Avg	High	Low	Nov
Corn		290.6	292.0	284.0	291.7
Soybeans		123.4	124.0	123.0	123.3
Wheat		261.6	262.4	261.0	261.4
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26
	Nov	Avg	High	Low	Nov
Corn		281.3	283.0	279.0	281.3
Soybeans		122.8	125.0	121.6	122.0
Wheat		272.6	275.0	270.9	271.4

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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